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Book 2

PART 2

Chapter 1

Algorithm of the technical analysis. What problems are still unsolved by the classicists of the technical analysis of trading?

Bibliography of the books, dedicated to the technical analysis of trading.

Hundreds of books are written about the classical technical analysis. Just the very fact of the existence of heaps of such books can frighten a trader-beginner -- even if one doesn’t go into details of their content (sometimes this content is rather dubious).

In several next chapters of my book I’ll try briefly and intelligibly to expose a general algorithm of all those manuals, dedicated to the technical analysis of trading. The goal is to clearly explain the following - even to a trader-novice:

*  Logic (algorithm) of the classical technical analysis;

*  The place and role of each detail in this algorithm;

*  The correlation between these elements of the classical technical analysis of trading.

*  The unsolved problems that concern each element of the technical analysis (the algorithm vulnerability);

*  The solution to these problems is submitted by Masterforex-V Trading System.

Among hundreds of books concerning the technical analysis of trading, one should single out a group of the following books.

*  Those ones included in the bibliography submitted in Part 1 of Book 2 “Technical analysis of forex in Masterforex-V trading system "(see book2.htm).

*  The classical books in the realm of the trading technical analysis – the books used by millions of traders in their training to trading all over the world at all times. These books are the following.

“The inter-market technical analysis” by J. Murphy;

“The technical analysis of future markets” by J. Murphy;

“The visual investor. How to determine trends” by J. Murphy;

“How to play and gain at the stock exchange” by A Elder;

“Fundamentals of trading at the stock exchange” by A. Elder;

“Trading according to Dr. Elder. The encyclopedia of the stock exchange speculation” by A. Elder;

“The technical analysis. The complete course” by D. Schwager;

“Trading chaos” by B. Williams;

“New dimensions in the stock exchange trading” by B. Williams;

“Trading chaos – 2” by B. Williams;

“Long term secrets of the short-term trading” by L. Williams;

“The technical analysis as a new science” by T. Demarque;

“Trading at the world money-markets” by K. Luca;

“Stock-exchange secrets” by L. Konnors and L. Bradford Rashky;

“The manual of trading” by L. Borselino;

“The computer analysis of future markets” by Ch. Lebo and D. Lucas;

“Analysis of the channel” by T. Hurtle;

“Bollinger about Bollinger’s ribbons” by D. Bollinger;

“Momentum, trend and divergence” by W. Blaw;

“New mentality in the technical analysis” by R. Bensignore;

“Day trade on-line” by C. A. Farrel;

“The day-trader’s strategy in the electronic commerce” by R. Deal;

“The technical analysis with Advanced Get” by T. Joseph;

“The encyclopedia of the market technical gouges” by R. Colby and T. Meyer – the second edition;

“Day trading” by R. Koppel;

“On the other side of the technical analysis” by T. Chand;

“The technical analysis of goods- and money markets” by A Earlikh;

“The technical analysis” by M. Kan;

“The intraday trading: secrets of mastery” by Van Tarp and Brian June.

“Forex for beginners” by V. Barishpolz;

“The way to the financial independence” by E. Neiman;

“A trader-investor” by E. Neiman;

“The trader’s small encyclopedia” by E. Neiman

– And so on.

Comment : the books about the wave- and candle analyses, Fibonacci levels will be examined according to this very scheme and submitted in a separate chapter.

Why many of books, written by Russian-speaking authors are not included into the bibliography of trading technical analysis.

*  The majority of those books just duplicate the original ideas of the authors enumerated above (such as Murphy, Schwager, Elder, Luca, Demarque, etc.). It becomes especially evident when one sees the mistakes and problems, unsolved by the classicists of the trading technical analysis – this relates to every element of the algorithm. That is, one can see that all Russian-speaking authors repeat the same mistakes.

*  It’s unlikely that a series of the so-called “masterpieces”, written in Russian, deserve to be subjected to the minute scientific analysis. In this connection, one can refer to the book “It’s easy to play at the stock exchange”, written by V. A. Taran – the rector of the International Academy of Stock Exchange Trading “Forex Club”. This dealing center sends this book to each student as the literature, obligatory for the work at forex. I suppose that a trader-to-be can appreciate this book at its true value. For instance, one should pay attention to Part 4: “How Nyura – an old woman – almost managed to “lay down” USD”. The reader should keep in mind that the title like this is chosen by the rector of the International Academy of Stock Exchange Trading “Forex Club”! I would also like to refer to Part 5 (“Life as it comes”), Part 5.1 (“Make way for women”), Part 6 (“The technical analysis as the omen of our life”), Part 6.1 (“Folk omens”), Part 6.3 (“A small universe”), Part 8 (“A cold shower strengthens one’s health”), Part 8.1 (“The appearance deceives (plays tricks)”). Thus, the readers can make the corresponding conclusions by themselves – i.e., they can estimate the “usefulness” of this information for the trader’s everyday work at forex.

The reader can find the majority of these books in the Masterforex-V Academy library (see http://masterforex-v.su).

Why a series of books, dedicated to the technical analysis of forex, is dangerous and harmful to a novice at forex.

The matter is that such books about the technical analysis of trading have been written not for the audience of the forex market. In this connection, I want to state the following (in a way, this statement is somewhat paradoxical). Many of these books are dangerous and injurious to a beginner at forex.

The matter is that, while reading these books, written by Murphy, Elder, Schwager, Luca, Kan, Neiman, etc., one must professionally and critically distinguish the following.

*  There is a series of postulates, inherent in the classical technical analysis of trading, which could be successfully applicable at forex.

*  A series of postulates, inherent in the classical technical analysis of trading, has nothibg in common with forex at all.

*  A series of postulates, inherent in the classical technical analysis of trading, is profoundly erroneous.

*  A series of postulates, inherent in the classical technical analysis of trading, is contradictive.

a). What statements in the classical technical analysis of trading can be successfully applied to the trading at forex – this problem is in details elucidated in Book 2 - “Technical analysis of forex in Masterforex-V trading system (see " book2.htm).
What aspects of the classical technical analysis have nothing in common with the trading at forex.

There are several patterns of this kind – e.g., Murphy’s reversal patterns, a “rounded top” and a “saucer” cannot exist at forex.

It’s not for nothing that A Elder didn’t classified this figure as a reversal pattern of the trading technical analysis.

Why Murphy’s reversal pattern (a “rounded top”) cannot exist at forex according to Masterforex-V trading system approach.

a). At the controllable market of forex, there are no smooth and slow reversals of trends by several hundreds of points – or more. Really, it’s absurd to imagine that, issuing from Murphy’s reversal patterns (a “rounded top” and a “saucer”), Organizer of the game at forex could permit a trader to do the following during the smooth and slow movement.

*  To allow to all traders to open a deal on “buy” in the presence of the “saucer” pattern.

*  Further, to permit to close such deals on “buy” under the condition of a “rounded top” pattern and then to open downward-directed deals.

Besides, there arises an interesting question. Probably, Murphy has not asked it to himself – he is an analyst (but not a trader). The matter consists in the following. Who would pay profits to traders’ all-over the world if such patterns of reversal could really exist at forex market?

b). Such trend reversals are always rash – as one can see at charts of the real trades (in the framework of long-term deals, they can be regarded as waves of correction). In no way they can be gradual and smooth reversals as it is depicted by Murphy at mythic charts of his.

What postulates of the classical technical analysis are erroneous in their essence.

For instance, let’s dwell on the trader’s work tactics in K. Luca’s expanding triangle. Here I want to remind the reader of the very principles of K. Luca’s work within the expanding triangle. They are the following:

*  Breaking-through the slanted channel level;

*  The goal makes 200% after the breaking-through the expanding triangle.

The technical analysis at the world money market according K. Luca (see Masterforex-V trading academy library (http://dma.masterforex-v.su).

*** Chart 3.21. A typical expanding triangle of the “bear” type.

Criticizing this method, K Luca has written Part 2 of his book “Unsolved mysteries of the expanding triangle” (see book2.htm). In particular, there this author has prognosticated the AUD/USD pair currency movement in the chart w1 (on March 23, 2007) issuing from this pattern.

Masterforex-V trading system claims that the AUD/USD pair currency movement intensity will substantially increase under the condition of breaking-through the resistance level 0.7996 http://forum.masterforex-v.su/index.php?showtopic=4566.

This prognostication has been realized – see an increase in AUD/USD pair movement from 0.7996 and up to 0.8870.

I would like to remind the reader the expanding triangle concept according to Masterforex-V trading system.

*  In the overwhelming majority of the cases, the expanding triangle is the last wave (in the given case, it is w1). The formation of one of the reversal patterns and the ally currency pair behavior confirm this statement.

*  As DeMarque has mentioned, the slanted channel lines and breaking though them predict the approach of a heavy movement towards the opposite direction – but not of opening deals in the expectation of 200%-profit as K. Luca has claimed it.

*  We are looking for the point of reversal at the small-size timeframes. Here Masterforex-V trading system elements must be applied (the trend reversal elements, allies, news, zones of inter-session flat (ISF), Masterforex-V zones, Masterforex-V pivot, the algorithm of Masterforex-V slanted channel rearrangement, gouges, etc.

*  Abolition of the chosen variant results in a new breaking through the maximum (the reversal pattern cancellation) and the continuation of the “bull” waves in a time frame of a scale larger than w1. Respectively, another trading plan and algorithm of the movement are implied.

K. Luca has submitted his trading system in the book “Application of the technical analysis in the world money market”. According to his trading system, the trader must do the following.

*  Omit almost 900 points during an increase in AUD/USD pair movement.

*  After the breaking through the expanding flat level, one must open a deal and wait again - until AUD/USD pair would pass through other 900 points in its upward-directed movement.

*  As far as I’m concerned, it’s useless, unprofitable and even harmful to read such books about the technical analysis of forex. I suppose that the chart of AUD/USD pair movement clearly prove and perfectly illustrate the correctness of this statement.

What theses by classicists of technical analysis are contradictive?

In this connection, the reader should pay attention to book2.htm.

Let’s dwell on contradictions between the expanding-triangle concepts. That is, J. Murphy’s, K. Luca’s and E. Neiman’s approaches contradict to the technique, elaborated by L. Williams - the world-champion in trading (002_016.htm).

Techniques of opening deals in the expanding triangle : who of the authors is right – either A. Elder or K. Luca and E. Neiman (002_016.htm)?

There are divergences in the rules of opening deals in the symmetrical triangle , elaborated by J. Murphy, A. Elder, K. Luca, Schwager, Borcelino and E. Neiman (002_014.htm).

Contradictions in the rules of the work according to J. Murphy, A. Elder, J. Schwager and B. Williams are elucidated in 002_010.htm.

As regards the points of opening deals in the slanted channels according to classicists of the technical analysis - J. Murphy, E. Neiman, Demarque, Schwager, Le Bo, K. Luca and Borishpoltz, the divergences in the approaches of these authors are described in 002_006.htm.

There is a series of other problems. Each of the classicists of the technical analysis of trading has an approach of his own to these problems. Respectively, all of them recommend different points of opening and closing the deals.

Masterforex-V trading system is based on the following principles .

1.  Let’s suppose that the forex classicists’ trading systems are correct in the half of the cases. Hence, it is perfectly logical “to separate grains off tares”. For this purpose, in Masterforex Books 1 and 2 I give analysis to the following subjects – moving averages, levels of the resistance and support, pivot, slanted channels, trend reversal patterns, patterns of the trend continuation, etc. Examining each of these themes, I do my best to bring the reader to the following points:

*  To expose the classicists’ mistakes in the corresponding branch;

*  To solve a problem in question – i.e., to make use of the given mechanism for obtaining the true signal for entering a deal and getting out of it.

Thus, one gets either a principally-new instrument for giving analysis to the market or its optimization in accordance with Masterforex-V trading system.

2.   No universal method in understanding the currency movement correctly does exist (no Grail is available). Consequently, one cannot relay just on a “uniquely-true” method in opening and closing deals.

In each chapter of Books 1 and 2, I in details explain the problems, inherent in each of the instruments, used by traders in opening deals (moving averages, levels of the resistance and support, pivot, slanted channels, ally currencies, etc.).

Consequently, one must synthesize together various elements of measurements at forex market. The goal is to get true points of opening and closing deals on the basis of intersection of these methods.

  1. It’s impossible just to combine the market measurement techniques automatically. For instance, the wave analysis, the 3 shields of Elder, Fibonacci’s levels, the trend slanted channels, the divergence, the flat-trend, levels of the resistance and support, moving averages, various waves in different TF, etc. – all of them make components of a single whole. Previously each of these parts was examined independently. No attempts were made to tracing out the correlation between them.

In this connection, one can draw an analogy with medicine. As it is known, there exists the course of anatomy. Can you imagine a doctor who doesn’t know Human Anatomy and, respectively, the results of the work of such a “specialist”? Analogously, can you imagine the results of the trader’s work if it’s based on 1 or 2 estimates of the currency movement at forex, not making use of synthesizing these gauges with other ones? Surely, such a trader will come to grief. The same would be true in case of a doctor, trained just during 2-4 weeks courses. In fact, 99% of traders all over the world do get the “so-called” training of a kind.

  1. All components of the movement at forex are binary. That is, various combinations of the intermediate data yield different results. Issuing from this, the trader must give analysis to the situation and come to a certain decision. These solutions can be as follows.

*  To stay back of the market;

*  To open short-term deals;

*  To open long-term deals, the possibility of topping-up being implied.

*  To be clearly aware of one’s operations.

a). The attention must be paid to the types of timeframes and those of the trend, under the condition of which these deals are opened. The situation can be the following.

*  A short-term trend m1;

*  A short-term trend m5;

*  A short-term trend m15-30;

*  A medium-term trend h1;

*  A medium-term trend h4;

*  A long-term trend d1;

*  A long-term trend w1.

b). Now we dwell on the goal of each movement – with the precision up to 1 point. Here one deals with the counting technique.

c). Now let’s examine when and how the movement in a short-term timeframe influences a longer-term trend. As it’s known, any movement always starts at m1. In this connection, we are interested in the following criteria.

*  The m5-15 trend transition into h1-trend;

*  The m5-15 trend transition into h4- or d1- trends determines the trend movement intensity.

*  Criteria of the trend abolition and the flat continuation;

*  Criteria of the trend reversals. Masterforex-V trading system includes the elements that indicate the trend reversal before the formation of the classical pattern of it – or earlier than the 1st wave towards the opposite direction is formed (according to Elliot’s wave analysis).

Below I demonstrate how intensive waves at h1-h4 are being formed at m1. The corresponding signals permit opening deals in the medium-term trends just by several scores of points earlier than the previous trend ends.

Without the clear understanding of the mutual correlation between 7 timeframes (the kinds of trends), all your earnings at forex market will be just occasional. In fact, the loss of your deposit will be logically explicable.

  1. Besides, I submit the everyday practice of applying Masterforex-V trading system to the real trades – from the viewpoint of opening and closing the deals, scrutinizing mistakes, problems, recommendations, giving analysis to situations. The job of this kind is being carried out in Masterforex-V trading academy already during 2 years.

Is there an individual who cherishes the idea of becoming a pro just after reading manuals?

  1. The intermediate results, already achieved, are the following.

*  Students of Masterforex-V trading academy are winners of various prestigious competitions. The public accumulation of deposits scores and hundreds of times more are achieved during a month (konkurs.htm).

*  There are references to the books by Masterforex-V and training of students in Masterforex-V trading academy.

*  We examine the cases when brokers don’t return the money to the students of Masterforex-V trading academy, earned by them at forex ( http://forum.masterforex-v.su/index.php?s...c=4913&st=0 ).

*  Many brokers and Dealing Centers forbid even to mention the institution of Masterforex-V trading academy at all.

*  It’s described the formation of several chairs and departments of Masterforex-V trading academy and the beginning of the practice (a separate section is dedicated to these problems). Experienced traders share with their secrets of gaining profit at forex.

There is an example how Masterforex-V trading system can be applied to the real trading, issuing from the synthesis of seven timeframes.

We describe the medium-term trend h4 and the opening of deals at it by students of our Academy during the last several weeks of trading at forex.

*  The blue line indicates the deals on “buy” and the levels, to start from which they are to be opened.

*  The red line indicates the deals on “sell” and the levels, to start from which they are to be opened.

How this can become possible?

There is the prompt from Masterforex-V trading academy. You should try to scrutinize every reversal at each of the 7 timeframes. As the point of reference, the reader should take the level, to start from which the students of Masterforex-V trading academy open their deals. The reader by himself should get to one of the elements of Masterforex-V trading academy algorithms.

The prompt consists in the reversal decoding under the condition of the short-term timeframe (trends).

What variants can be realized further?

How to detect the end of the current ascending movement to start from 1.9651?

It’s just one of the examples of Masterforex-V trading academy work.

Any beginner at forex must clearly see that to become successful in forex one must do the following.

*  To solve the analogous problems everyday, clearly seeing the goals and tasks of every movement.

*  To clearly see criteria of the trend continuation and the trend reversal.

*  At any moment to have an opportunity to ask a specifying question to a trader, more experienced.

This is the reason why Masterforex-V trading academy is organized. At present, the very mention of this institution is forbidden by wheeler-dealers from many of Russian dealing centers at their sites.

 

 


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Risk Warning

Before deciding to participate in the Forex market, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose. There is considerable exposure to risk in any off-exchange foreign exchange transaction, including, but not limited to, leverage, creditworthiness, limited regulatory protection and market volatility that may substantially affect the price, or liquidity of a currency or currency pair. More over, the leveraged nature of forex trading means that any market movement will have an equally proportional effect on your deposited funds. This may work against you as well as for you. The possibility exists that you could sustain a total loss of initial margin funds and be required to deposit additional funds to maintain your position. If you fail to meet any margin requirement, your position may be liquidated and you will be responsible for any resulting losses. To manage exposure, employ risk-reducing strategies such as 'stop-loss' or 'limit' orders. Placing Contingent Orders (stop loss, limit, etc) may not limit your losses to the intended amounts”

 

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